Just outside Peoria, Illinois, sits the Keystone Steel and Wire factory. For over 25 years, my grandfather worked a union job there that many workers envy today. In 2025, only around 80,000 Americans will work in the steel industry, less than half the number employed when my grandfather was in the workforce. As this number continues to dwindle yearly, America has faced a serious dilemma in the steel industry. Unfortunately, President Biden may have just signed its death warrant.

U.S. Steel, the nation’s third-largest steel employer, sought to answer its steadily decreasing production with a merger. Having waned in employment for decades, any bid for reinvestment and revitalization was desperately needed. The company ultimately proposed its acquisition by Japan’s Nippon Steel, the world’s fourth-largest steel producer. The $14 billion deal sought to strengthen U.S. Steel through new and updated plant infrastructure. However, just three days into the new year, President Biden squandered the deal under pretenses of national security concerns.

The decision has drawn ire and admiration, with many Democrats and Republicans finding common ground with Biden over the issue, including Donald Trump. For its supporters, the decision is a firm step towards protecting domestic steel production for American workers and the independence of our other industries that rely on steel, particularly the defense sector. Of course, the decision is undeniably political. In the wake of Trump’s recent victory, Democrats have increasingly needed to bolster their diminishing working-class voter base. With the block strongly supported by the Pittsburgh-based United Steelworkers union, the decision was an easy win for Dems seeking union supporters.

However, the decision is detrimental beneath the surface. Regarding national security, the right choice isn’t as clear-cut as its supporters have claimed. Japan is a critical U.S. ally diplomatically and in trade, while China being an ever-growing threat to domestic U.S. steel production. Although unnecessary entanglements are generally best avoided, tying Japanese steel production to the U.S. would be just as beneficial for combatting China as any domestic bid for improved productivity.

At the same time, the benefits for U.S. workers promised by blocking the merger seem to disappear once you pull back the veil. The deal with Nippon hadn’t been formed in isolation; reinvestment in U.S. Steel had been sought for many years, with previous attempts at a merger tried by the two larger domestic steel firms, Nucor and Cleveland-Cliffs, which had been blocked over concerns of monopolization by automobile manufacturers and other steel-reliant industries. The blockage of Nippon’s deal is another setback in a long chain of attempts to jumpstart the faltering U.S. Steel. Unfortunately, Biden hasn’t saved domestic steel production but guaranteed further layoffs and closures unless some alternative deal can be brokered.

The American worker’s psyche has been continually damaged by lost domestic productivity to China, our biggest competitor in steel production. A merger with a Japanese company would undoubtedly give a poor image to the future of U.S. Steel, with a promise to keep the company’s Pittsburgh headquarters hardly making up for becoming foreign-owned. Union’s disapproval of the merger made clear that American steelworkers want American steel jobs, and Biden has affirmed their view. It’s difficult to say, however, whether preserving domestic production is possible without foreign investment. Unless U.S. Steel can reignite its mergers with either Nucor or Cleveland-Cliffs, the company is resigned to a future of steady decline. Even if those companies could find a new deal, it remains unclear whether they could save U.S. steel production in the long term. Despite being the largest steel producer in the U.S., Nucor is only 15th in the world, with two Japanese companies superseding it and many Chinese firms easily outpacing it. Although this deal with Nippon has been blocked, foreign investment seems likely for U.S. Steel and perhaps our domestic industry.

For Keystone Steel and Wire, such foreign investment was a godsend. A 2018 deal brought the company under the direction of a British corporation, GFG Alliance. The group, which has also bought plants and firms in Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Florida, has become a major foreign investor in U.S. steel production. Since 2018, this investment has proved quite successful, bringing Keystone’s output up to 700,000 tons annually.

The bottom line is this: U.S. steel and the American steel industry as a whole ultimately need growth, not protectionism. American workers don’t just need American jobs; they need jobs.